2016年以來黃金定價從「交易價值」主導切換至「儲備價值」主導  

我們在1.19《大安全當立》中指出，黃金定價存在三個錨點：儲備價值、消費價值、交易價值。2016年之前，金價與美債利率及美元指數呈高度負相關，此階段主要以交易價值為黃金定價。2016年以來，金價與美債利率及美元指數的相關性減弱，黃金開始逐步以儲備價值定價：美元信用裂痕曾出現3次明顯擴張，對應地，金價也迎來3次主升浪行情。  

第一浪（2016年起）：「全球貿易－美元結算」體系鬆動，黃金以儲備價值定價  

美元信用的根基從最初的「石油－美元」體系，逐步過渡至「全球貿易－美元結算」體系。2013年中國成為全球第一大貨物貿易國，中國商品全球貿易中的美元結算，構成了美元信用的根基。2016年逆全球化正式拉開序幕，美元信用的根基受到明顯動搖。此後，金價即便面對2016-2019年美聯儲加息週期，仍持續上漲，標誌著黃金的交易價值正式讓位於儲備價值。  

第二浪（2022年起）：美國將俄羅斯踢出SWIFT系統，嚴重損害美元信用  

2022年2月俄烏衝突爆發後，美國將俄羅斯踢出SWIFT結算系統。時任美國財長葉倫當時便表達過憂慮：此舉會侵蝕美元在全球金融體系中的核心地位。事實上，這一行為也確實加劇了全球對美元信用的不信任感，美元信用裂痕再次擴張。2022年下半年起，全球主要國家開始加速減持美元、增持黃金。與此對應，金價從2022年7月開始，即便面對美聯儲加息週期，依舊持續上漲，黃金的儲備價值進一步凸顯。  

第三浪（2025年起）：9.18非例行降息，進一步損害美聯儲獨立性  

市場普遍認為，今年9月18日美聯儲的降息決策中，鮑威爾在一定程度上受到「脅迫」。與此同時，美聯儲新理事米蘭在9月會議中投出具有象徵意義的一票（唯一支持降息50個基點的成員），這也會加深市場對美聯儲獨立性受損的憂慮。未來我們需重點跟蹤兩點：（1）一位「聽話的」美聯儲新主席或將很快公布；（2）明年2月前聯邦最高法院是否支持白宮解僱庫克。美聯儲獨立性受損，將進一步損害美元信用，從而推動金價迎來第三波主升浪行情。  

In our January 19 report The Rise of Grand Security, we pointed out that there are three anchors for gold pricing: reserve value, consumption value, and trading value. Before 2016, the gold price had a strong negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index, with its pricing mainly driven by trading value. Since 2016, the correlation between the gold price and U.S. Treasury yields & the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, and gold pricing has gradually been dominated by reserve value: there have been 3 obvious expansions of cracks in U.S. dollar credit, and correspondingly, the gold price has seen 3 major upward waves.

The First Wave (starting in 2016): Loosening of the 'Global Trade - U.S. Dollar Settlement' System, Gold Pricing Driven by Reserve Value

The foundation of U.S. dollar credit has gradually transitioned from the original 'Petrodollar' system to the 'Global Trade - U.S. Dollar Settlement' system. In 2013, China became the world's largest trading nation in goods, and the U.S. dollar settlement of China's global commodity trade formed the foundation of U.S. dollar credit. The year 2016 marked the official start of de - globalization, which significantly shook the foundation of U.S. dollar credit. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle from 2016 to 2019, the gold price continued to rise, indicating that the trading value of gold had officially given way to its reserve value.

The Second Wave (starting in 2022): U.S. Removing Russia from the SWIFT System, Severely Damaging U.S. Dollar Credit

After the outbreak of the Russia - Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the U.S. removed Russia from the SWIFT settlement system. At that time, the then U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concerns that this move would erode the U.S. dollar's central position in the global financial system. In fact, this action did intensify the global distrust of U.S. dollar credit, leading to another expansion of cracks in U.S. dollar credit. Starting from the second half of 2022, major countries around the world accelerated the reduction of U.S. dollar holdings and increased their gold reserves. Correspondingly, starting from July 2022, the gold price continued to rise even in the face of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, further highlighting the reserve value of gold.

The Third Wave (starting in 2025): Unconventional Interest Rate Cut on September 18, Further Undermining the Independence of the Federal Reserve

The market generally believes that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was 'coerced' to some extent into the interest rate cut on September 18 this year. At the same time, Michelle Bowman, the new Federal Reserve Governor, cast a highly symbolic vote at the September meeting (the only one in favor of a 50 - basis - point rate cut), which will deepen the market's concerns about the impairment of the Federal Reserve's independence. In the future, we need to keep track of two things: (1) A new 'compliant' Federal Reserve Chair may be announced soon; (2) Whether the U.S. Supreme Court will support the White House in dismissing Cook before February next year. The impairment of the Federal Reserve's independence will further damage U.S. dollar credit, triggering the third major upward wave of the gold price.