美聯儲公布的12月會議紀要顯示，今年以來美國實質GDP溫和成長，勞動力市場持續降溫，薪資漲幅與去年同期大致相當；第三季經濟活動表現穩健，但今年前三季的平均增速仍屬溫和，低於先前對2024年的預期增速。政府停擺預計將對短期GDP構成拖累。工作團隊預估，隨著金融環境改善及關稅影響逐步減弱，2025年後經濟增速將略高於潛在水準，失業率逐步回落，通膨雖短期面臨壓力，但將於2028年回落至2%目標，惟整體不確定性仍居高不下。與會人士普遍認為，通膨風險仍偏上行，而勞動力市場相關風險則偏向下行。

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that U.S. real GDP has grown moderately so far this year, the labor market has continued to cool, and wage growth has been roughly on par with the same period last year. While economic activity was solid in the third quarter, the average growth rate in the first three quarters of the year remained modest, falling short of the previously projected pace for 2024. A government shutdown is expected to weigh on short-term GDP.

Fed staff projected that as financial conditions ease and the impact of tariffs fades gradually, economic growth will run slightly above its potential level after 2025, the unemployment rate will edge lower, and inflation will return to the 2% target in 2028 following short-term pressures. However, overall uncertainty remains elevated. Meeting participants generally agreed that risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside, whereas risks related to the labor market are skewed to the downside.