Wintermute 分析指出，美以聯合空襲伊朗，觸發市場規避風險，比特幣一度跌至 63,000 美元後回升至約 67,000 美元，以太幣最低觸及 1,910 美元。荷莫茲海峽關閉，衝突未見降溫，油價飆升、黃金上漲、股市低開，VIX 波動率升至 2026 年高點。ETF 上週淨流入超過 10 億美元，結束五週資金流出，但機構場外交易仍低迷。市場已部分消化地緣風險：若衝突短期可控，價格可能出現跌後反彈；若荷莫茲海峽持續關閉，高油價將推升通膨，延緩聯準會降息，對風險資產及加密資產構成壓力。加密資產仍受總體經濟環境主導，短期承壓，山寨幣表現疲弱，中長期關注衝突發展與能源價格變化對市場的影響。

Wintermute analysis points out that the joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered risk aversion in the market. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $63,000 before rebounding to around $67,000, while Ethereum hit a low of $1,910. Amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and no signs of de-escalation in the conflict, oil prices surged, gold rallied, stock markets opened lower, and the VIX volatility index rose to its 2026 high. ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion last week, ending five consecutive weeks of outflows, although institutional over-the-counter trading remained subdued. The market has partially priced in geopolitical risks: if the conflict remains contained in the short term, prices may rebound after the pullback; if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, elevated oil prices will stoke inflation, delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts and pressuring both risk assets and crypto assets. Cryptocurrencies remain dominated by the macro environment, under short-term pressure with weak performance in altcoins. For the medium to long term, focus will be on the conflict’s evolution and the impact of energy price movements on the market.